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Bailout bank Monte dei Paschi sub deal three times over-subcribed as Euro...
A subordinated deal in a bank bailed out just a year ago and the currency at a three -year high underscore European investor confidence. This website is now reader-supported via Patreon. Full-text...
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The coming Greek bank nationalization, bail-in and privatization
The existence of capital controls eliminates contagion and makes it possible to bail-in deposits that would normally be considered to have systemic consequences. The more I look at it, the less benign...
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The new European Union
The new bailout deal for Greece was not easy. This column argues that it was also a failure. It will not be enough to recapitalise banks, it asks for structural reform that exceeds Greek capacities,...
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The Greek capitulation puts nationalism centre stage
Over the past week, European institutions have shown no qualms about bullying, arm-twisting, and humiliating a sovereign nation and its people. This is no union – this is a fiasco. This website is now...
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Grexit is much closer than we think
The Greek government has now been boxed in by the “no” referendum vote and is unable to make the kinds of concessions a “yes” vote would have allowed. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup’s thinking about the...
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Greek default and Grexit now increasing in probability
At this point, default within the eurozone is the best case scenario for Greece. Grexit is still a distinct possibility. All potential best case scenarios are out the window. Below is my assessment on...
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Greece: Default within the eurozone is nearing as Troika tables...
Greece has reached the end of the line. Its debt repayment schedule is so large in early June that it will definitely run out of money without a deal. And judging from the latest negotiations, a deal...
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Losing the narrative in Greece
Recently I told a few friends how frustrating the events unfolding in Greece are. It’s clear to most that the delays to a full restructuring in Greece reduces the net present value available to...
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Wolfgang Schaeuble the Salesman
When the Greek bailout extension deal got done, I mentioned that in the press conference that followed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear he was looking to ‘sell’ the deal to the...
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Greek default
Two things I have written recently stand out as I contemplate what will happen in Greece. The first is that the institutions formerly known as the Troika had accepted Greece’s reform list sooner than I...
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Why Understanding Money Matters in Greece
As Greece staggers under the weight of a depression exceeding that of the 1930s in the US, it appears difficult to see a way forward from what is becoming increasingly a Ponzi financed, extend and...
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Greece, Eventual Grexit, and European Asset Values
I am positive about European assets on a cyclical basis. European shares are cheaper than their American counterparts and European QE provides an underpinning for European sovereign debt. As long as...
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Negotiating strategies and political constraints regarding Greece
I am going to leave my market-based analysis and enter the murky waters of the political economy. I don’t like the uncertainty of the political economy, given how it is based on the quixotic and...
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The Grexit talk should be frightening
About four weeks ago, I wrote a post on Greek eurozone exit scenarios. While I believe that Greece will eventually exit the euro zone, I think it is premature to expect this to occur now as there are...
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The gun at Ireland’s head, Saudi maneuvering and more on US elections
US elections Just to follow up on yesterday’s two posts, exit polling data from Tuesday confirm what I was saying about disenchantment with the U.S. economy despite the positive headlines. 58% of those...
View ArticleSome thoughts on German politics and the saver’s tax in Cyprus
The latest news out of Cyprus is that the Cyrpiot government has delayed the vote on a bank bailout and savers tax by one day to Monday and that it has also extended the bank holiday from just Monday...
View ArticleThe Cyprus Bank Deposit Bail-in
This morning we learned that after hours of tense negotiation, Europe has hammered out a 10bn euro "bailout" of Cyprus. I put the term bailout in quotes because the key feature of this deal is the...
View ArticleOn Ireland’s bond success
I listed Ireland in two of my surprises for 2013. I wrote that Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. I also wrote that Ireland goes to OMT. The first...
View ArticleWill Mario Draghi begin buying Italian government bonds?
A key issue that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral outcome of Italy. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Will Mario Draghi begin...
View ArticleAn Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons Italians voted for Grillo
A reader of our blog here at Credit Writedowns recently wrote to me, detailing why Italians voted as they did in the recent general election. Her view speaks more to a rejection of corporatism and...
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