Portugal: austerity budget with highest tax increase in history as prep for OMT
Mired in the worst recession since the 1970s, Portugal’s governing coalition is going to turn up the austerity dial even higher. The goal is to reduce the Portuguese deficit to 4.5% of GDP in 2013 in...
View ArticleSpain: The government is claiming none of its auctions will fail after it...
The latest information out of Europe comes via the Financial Times where Miles Johnson writes that the Spanish are geared up to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the Troika. Other countries are...
View ArticleEurope is moving closer to the endgame
This is probably one of the most upbeat posts I have written on Europe in quite a while. Originally, I intended to write this post as a short blurb discussing Angela Merkel’s recent European proposals...
View ArticleWill Merkel grant ‘austerity model’ Ireland retroactive bank recap...
A key sticking point in the European policy debates over the banking sector concerns bank recapitalisation. As one would expect, the countries in crisis that have experienced a property bust like Spain...
View ArticlePortugal and Ireland: Us Too, Please
By Marc Chandler Greece has had trouble implementing the structural reforms demanded in exchange for aid. The large and rising debt/GDP ratio is also a function of the larger than officially (Troika)...
View ArticleWhy the Greek deal will see the country through to 2014
This weekly is a follow-up post to the daily I wrote on Greece earlier in the week. As I indicated then, my position on Greece has always been that eurozone leaders would be loathe to ‘kicking Greece...
View ArticleThe stealth bank bailout via leveraged FHA loans
When David Stevens left his position in the Obama Administration in 2011 as the head of the Federal Housing Administration to go to head the Mortgage Bankers Association, the chief lobbyist for the...
View ArticleAll Hail Mario Draghi: The Spanish Bank Run is Over for Now
The Spanish bank run caused by redenomination risk is over. And Spanish bond yields are now back to around the 5% level today. Apparently, the ECB’s monetisation scheme has worked – and without Spain’s...
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Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2012 Fared
Last year, I started my weekly subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three...
View ArticleIreland regains market access for both government and bank bonds
In yesterday’s links, I pointed to two links showing that Ireland had regained bond market access. Here is more evidence that Ireland is regaining bond market access. First, there was the Franfurter...
View ArticleConverting Irish debt controlled by Troika
Back in October of last year the Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said that his government’s goal is to be able to complete the three-year Troika bailout on time and resume normal operation late...
View ArticleOn the Portuguese and Irish bailout extension
Last October, I highlighted the issue of bailout extensions to Ireland and Portugal and so I want to re-visit this theme now that Portugal and Ireland are in the news looking to change the terms of...
View ArticleConfirmation of my view on Ireland and Portugal from Olli Rehn
This is an update to today’s weekly on Ireland and Portugal. Olli Rehn, the European Economics Commissioner has just confirmed my months’ long forecast on how the Irish and Portuguese bailouts would...
View ArticleWhat’s happening in Spain?
I have come across a number of Spanish-language links that I believe collectively add good colour to our understanding about the current economic and political situation in Spain. I am going to use...
View ArticleOn the need for Spain to formally apply for an OMT-style bailout
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s economic policy is in tatters. Spain’s economic descent is now accelerating, with output shrinking 0.7% in just the last quarter alone – the worst since crisis...
View ArticleOn Ireland’s superior economic performance
Earlier in the week, I wrote a post on Spain which explained why there is limited applicability of Latvia’s travails with austerity for larger economies in the euro zone like Spain. This is...
View ArticleIreland to liquidate Anglo Irish to cut government debt
According to the Irish Times, the government of Ireland has entered into a deal with the ECB to cut the country’s debt by liquidating the nationalised Irish bank Anglo Irish. As I noted in the Saturday...
View ArticleTen Surprises for 2013 coming
Last year, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 which I reviewed last month. I apologize for not having a similar list of ten surprises for 2013 yet. I think it is a good...
View ArticleMore evidence that the Germans have been marginalised at the ECB
It has been some time now since the ECB turned to monetisation to deal with its sovereign debt crisis. At the time, the Germans were out in full force attempting to stop the train of events and keep...
View ArticleAn Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons Italians voted for Grillo
A reader of Credit Writedowns recently wrote to us, detailing why Italians voted as they did in the recent general election. Her view speaks more to families’ and small business’ rejection of...
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