On Ireland’s bond success
I listed Ireland in two of my surprises for 2013. I wrote that Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. I also wrote that Ireland goes to OMT. The first...
View ArticleThe Cyprus Bank Deposit Bail-in
This morning we learned that after hours of tense negotiation, Europe has hammered out a 10bn euro “bailout” of Cyprus. I put the term bailout in quotes because the key feature of this deal is the...
View ArticleSome thoughts on German politics and the saver’s tax in Cyprus
Yesterday morning, I wrote a comprehensive post on the Cyprus bank deposit bail-in. Go there for the details of the bailout package. I want to expand on that here today with some thoughts on the...
View ArticleReview: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared
Today’s commentary I am going to my annual review a bit earlier this go around, hoping that I can do a new top ten surprises list earlier and more comprehensively next year. In 2012, I started the...
View ArticleOn Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem
Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government...
View ArticleWhat’s happening in Spain?
I have come across a number of Spanish-language links that I believe collectively add good colour to our understanding about the current economic and political situation in Spain. I am going to use...
View ArticleOn the need for Spain to formally apply for an OMT-style bailout
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's economic policy is in tatters. Spain's economic descent is now accelerating, with output shrinking 0.7% in just the last quarter alone - the worst since crisis...
View ArticleOn Ireland’s superior economic performance
Earlier in the week, I wrote a post on Latvia which explained why there is limited applicability of Latvia's travails with austerity for larger economies in the euro zone. One place where Latvia does...
View ArticleIreland to liquidate Anglo Irish to cut government debt
According to the Irish Times, the government of Ireland has entered into a deal with the ECB to cut the country's debt by liquidating the nationalised Irish bank Anglo Irish. As I noted in the Saturday...
View ArticleTen Surprises for 2013 coming
Last year, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 which I reviewed last month. I apologize for not having a similar list of ten surprises for 2013 yet. I think it is a good...
View ArticleNegotiating strategies and political constraints regarding Greece
I am going to leave my market-based analysis and enter the murky waters of the political economy. I don’t like the uncertainty of the political economy, given how it is based on the quixotic and...
View ArticleIs the deposit tax in Cyprus a mistake?
The Cypriot banking system is insolvent. Heaping private losses onto taxpayers is bad public policy. Let's start with those two statements, because starting there makes clear that forcing losses onto...
View ArticleThe political economy of the euro crisis, part 1
The European Union is an existential crisis because its crowning achievement, the single currency, has come under assault from all sides. The continued existence of the Euro has even been called into...
View ArticleWhy I may be wrong on Portugal because of the Cyprus deposit grab
Portugal is going to market with a 10-year sovereign bond issue, its first since 2011. I think this is a pretty big deal. Think of it as a complete return to public market access for the Portuguese...
View ArticleDaily Comments: 2013-06-06 – European economy
The data flow out of Europe today is pretty bad. German factories orders missed and unemployment rose to record levels in France and Greece. Meanwhile the IMF admitted that Greece's delayed debt...
View ArticleGreece’s failed privatization, Europe’s potential recovery and Abenomics
In the links today, the biggest threads outside of the NSA scandal were on Greece and Europe. I believe the economy there is bottoming and I want to discuss some of the news flow. There was also a rate...
View ArticleWhy Understanding Money Matters in Greece
As Greece staggers under the weight of a depression exceeding that of the 1930s in the US, it appears difficult to see a way forward from what is becoming increasingly a Ponzi financed, extend and...
View ArticleWolfgang Schaeuble the Salesman
When the Greek bailout extension deal got done, I mentioned that in the press conference that followed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear he was looking to ‘sell’ the deal to the...
View ArticleGreek default
This post was originally written for Credit Writedowns Pro on 11 Mar. Two things I have written recently stand out as I contemplate what will happen in Greece. The first is that the institutions...
View ArticleTen Surprises for 2013 coming
Last year, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 which I reviewed last month. I apologize for not having a similar list of ten surprises for 2013 yet. I think it is a good...
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