More evidence that the Germans have been marginalised at the ECB
It has been some time now since the ECB turned to monetisation to deal with its sovereign debt crisis. At the time, the Germans were out in full force attempting to stop the train of events and keep...
View ArticleAn Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons Italians voted for Grillo
A reader of our blog here at Credit Writedowns recently wrote to me, detailing why Italians voted as they did in the recent general election. Her view speaks more to a rejection of corporatism and...
View ArticleWill Mario Draghi begin buying Italian government bonds?
A key issue that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral outcome of Italy. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Will Mario Draghi begin...
View ArticleOn Ireland’s bond success
I listed Ireland in two of my surprises for 2013. I wrote that Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. I also wrote that Ireland goes to OMT. The first...
View ArticleGreek default and Grexit now increasing in probability
At this point, default within the eurozone is the best case scenario for Greece. Grexit is still a distinct possibility. All potential best case scenarios are out the window. Below is my assessment on...
View ArticleThe new European Union
The new bailout deal for Greece was not easy. This column argues that it was also a failure. It will not be enough to recapitalise banks, it asks for structural reform that exceeds Greek capacities,...
View ArticleIs the deposit tax in Cyprus a mistake?
The Cypriot banking system is insolvent. Heaping private losses onto taxpayers is bad public policy. Let's start with those two statements, because starting there makes clear that forcing losses onto...
View ArticleThe political economy of the euro crisis, part 1
The European Union is an existential crisis because its crowning achievement, the single currency, has come under assault from all sides. The continued existence of the Euro has even been called into...
View ArticleWhy I may be wrong on Portugal because of the Cyprus deposit grab
Portugal is going to market with a 10-year sovereign bond issue, its first since 2011. I think this is a pretty big deal. Think of it as a complete return to public market access for the Portuguese...
View ArticleDaily Comments: 2013-06-06 – European economy
The data flow out of Europe today is pretty bad. German factories orders missed and unemployment rose to record levels in France and Greece. Meanwhile the IMF admitted that Greece's delayed debt...
View ArticleGreece’s failed privatization, Europe’s potential recovery and Abenomics
In the links today, the biggest threads outside of the NSA scandal were on Greece and Europe. I believe the economy there is bottoming and I want to discuss some of the news flow. There was also a rate...
View ArticleThoughts on Italy’s election and Links: 2013-02-26
News links for 26 February 2013 The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Thoughts on Italy’s election and Links: 2013-02-26 originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Links:...
View ArticleAn Italian voter speaks out on the real reasons Italians voted for Grillo
A reader of our blog here at Credit Writedowns recently wrote to me, detailing why Italians voted as they did in the recent general election. Her view speaks more to a rejection of corporatism and...
View ArticleWill Mario Draghi begin buying Italian government bonds?
A key issue that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral outcome of Italy. The most in-depth research and analysis is on Credit Writedowns Pro. Will Mario Draghi begin...
View ArticleOn Ireland’s bond success
I listed Ireland in two of my surprises for 2013. I wrote that Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. I also wrote that Ireland goes to OMT. The first...
View ArticleThe Cyprus Bank Deposit Bail-in
This morning we learned that after hours of tense negotiation, Europe has hammered out a 10bn euro "bailout" of Cyprus. I put the term bailout in quotes because the key feature of this deal is the...
View ArticleSome thoughts on German politics and the saver’s tax in Cyprus
The latest news out of Cyprus is that the Cyrpiot government has delayed the vote on a bank bailout and savers tax by one day to Monday and that it has also extended the bank holiday from just Monday...
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The gun at Ireland’s head, Saudi maneuvering and more on US elections
US elections Just to follow up on yesterday’s two posts, exit polling data from Tuesday confirm what I was saying about disenchantment with the U.S. economy despite the positive headlines. 58% of those...
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The Grexit talk should be frightening
About four weeks ago, I wrote a post on Greek eurozone exit scenarios. While I believe that Greece will eventually exit the euro zone, I think it is premature to expect this to occur now as there are...
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Negotiating strategies and political constraints regarding Greece
I am going to leave my market-based analysis and enter the murky waters of the political economy. I don’t like the uncertainty of the political economy, given how it is based on the quixotic and...
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